In a quiet conference room at the Federal Reserve, economists huddled around a polished oak table, their expressions a mix of concern and resolve. The recent decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut the interest rate by 50 basis points had sent ripples through the financial world, signalling a significant shift in the economic tide.
In the USA, Canada, and Europe, inflation is easing and reverting to the mean, but a 50-basis point reduction indicates that the game has flipped to encouraging growth again. Job growth is slowing, and the whispers of recession are getting louder across the boardrooms of the Western world. So, while the Fed’s decision aims to bolster U.S. households, the decision reverberates beyond American borders. A synchronised global response could bolster recovery, but a misstep could exacerbate the situation.
A 50-basis point cut in U.S. interest rates has historically been a mixed signal for the stock market. While such cuts can indicate the Federal Reserve’s intent to stimulate economic growth, they may also reflect underlying economic concerns, such as slowing growth or rising recession risks.
In many cases, initial market reactions to a significant rate cut can be positive, as lower rates generally make borrowing cheaper and can boost corporate profits. However, if the cut is seen as a response to deteriorating economic conditions, investors may interpret it as a sign of weakness, potentially self-fulfilling a market correction.
The phrase ‘Beware the Ides of March’ famously comes from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, warning of betrayal and downfall. In the context of the stock market, the ‘Ides of September and October’ refers to a historical tendency for increased volatility and market corrections during these months.
Historically, September has been the worst month for stock market performance. Markets often experience declines as summer trading slows and investors reassess their portfolios heading into the end of the U.S. fiscal year.
October is known for significant market events, including crashes, such as the 1929 crash and the 1987 Black Monday. This month is often characterised by increased trading volumes and heightened volatility as investors react to earnings reports and economic data.
It happens because, as the third quarter ends, traders start adjusting their strategies based on year-to-date performance, which leads to increased selling pressure. Additionally, important economic indicators and earnings reports are frequently released at this time of the year, which can shift market sentiment.
Overall, while not a hard and fast rule, the historical patterns of market behaviour in September and October lead many investors to be cautious during these months. However, when you couple that with a 50-basis point rate cut, then it’s worth sitting up and taking notice.